Economic Update
Market Week: March 6, 2023
The Markets (as of market close March 3, 2023)
A late rally sent stocks higher by the end of last week. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here gained nearly 2.0%, with the Nasdaq climbing 2.6% to lead the way. The large caps of the Dow and S&P 500 also rallied at the end of the week and are above their respective 2022 year-end values. Ten-year Treasury yields inched higher, despite bond prices staging a late-week price increase. The dollar index dipped below 105, while gold prices enjoyed their first weekly advance, following four consecutive weekly declines. Crude oil prices closed up by more than 4.0%, erasing losses earlier in the week.
Market Month: February 2023
The Markets (as of market close February 28, 2023)
February saw stocks slide lower after posting solid gains to begin the year. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here retreated from their January totals, with the Dow falling the furthest, followed by the Global Dow, the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq. Investors saw hope in January that inflation may be waning. However, February data showed inflationary pressures reversed course and expanded. The Federal Reserve has consistently maintained that it seeks to achieve maximum employment and hold inflation at the rate of 2.0%. So far in 2023, job growth has been solid, with more than 500,000 new hires, while the Consumer Price Index (+0.5%) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (+0.6%) revealed increasing inflationary pressures over the previous month. Inflation has risen 5.4% since January 2022, according to the latest PCE price index. With evidence that the economy can withstand further tightening, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to drive interest rates higher and for a longer period of time. This, coupled with lagging corporate earnings and the Russia/Ukraine war, which is entering its second year, has caused some investors to move from risk.
Market Week: February 21, 2023
The Markets (as of market close February 17, 2023)
Investors spent much of last week contemplating the impact of the latest inflation data and favorable economic reports. Consumer prices, producer prices, and export prices rose in January, while retail sales also increased, all of which could prompt more interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. In addition, crude oil prices fell more than 4.0% last week as supplies are plentiful, and rising interest rates could stymie economic growth and slow demand for oil. Stocks ended last week mixed, with the Dow and the S&P 500 slipping lower, while the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq, and the Global Dow edged higher. Ten-year Treasury yields rose by 8.0 basis points. The dollar increased against a basket of currencies, while gold prices fell 1.25%.
Market Week: February 13, 2023
The Markets (as of market close February 10, 2023)
Stocks dipped lower last week as investors mulled the direction of the economy as the Federal Reserve continued to increase interest rates, bolstered by January’s strong labor report. With fourth-quarter corporate earnings reporting season nearing a close, fewer companies are topping profit expectations, which may be another indication of a slowing economy. Each of the benchmark indexes posted weekly losses, with the S&P 500 turning in its worst weekly performance of the year. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose 21.0 basis points as bond prices declined. Crude oil prices jumped late last week following Russia’s announcement that it plans to cut oil production by about 5.0% next month in retaliation against Western oil sanctions. The dollar inched higher, while gold prices slipped lower.
Market Week: February 6, 2023
The Markets (as of market close February 3, 2023)
Just when investors saw a glimmer of hope that the Fed would soften its rate-hike policy, the January labor figures came out showing a massive job increase coupled with moderated wage growth. The latest employment data is evidence of a labor market that has withstood the Fed’s actions thus far and could encourage a more aggressive response by the central bank as it attempts to drive down inflation. Despite a late-week slide, stocks ended the week mixed, with the Nasdaq, the Russell 2000, and the S&P 500 posting gains, while the Dow, and the Global Dow lost ground. Ten-year Treasury yields inched higher and the dollar advanced. Gold prices, which had been on an upswing, fell to under $1,900.00 per ounce. Doubts about increased eand from China and concerns about rising interest rates sent crude oil prices lower last week.
Market Month: January 2023
The Markets (as of market close January 31, 2022)
January proved to be a bumpy ride for investors, with stocks ultimately ending higher to begin the new year, despite concerns that the economy may be headed toward a significant slowdown or even a recession. Nevertheless, each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains in January, led by the Nasdaq as tech stocks rebounded from a rough 2022. Stocks began the month by climbing higher over the first two weeks of January. However, equities lagged mid-month, only to rebound at the end of January, closing out the month on a positive note.
Market Week: January 30, 2023
The Markets (as of market close January 27, 2023)
Wall Street ended last week higher on favorable inflation, economic, and corporate earnings data. Investors now must await the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week to see whether the Fed will soften its policy of aggressive interest-rate hikes. Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is wide open with roughly 68% of the companies comprising the S&P 500 reporting earnings ahead of consensus estimates. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains by the end of last week, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Heading into the final two trading days of January, the Nasdaq has gained 11.0%, while the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow are up over 8.0%. Crude oil prices closed the week lower ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ committee meeting coupled with the European Union’s ban on Russian oil products. Ten-year Treasury yields inched higher, while the dollar and gold prices slipped.
Market Week: January 23, 2023
The Markets (as of market close January 20, 2023)
Last week saw stocks slide lower, despite a rally last Friday. Only the tech-heavy Nasdaq was able to post a gain among the benchmark indexes listed here. Throughout the week, investors had to balance data that showed inflation was waning with the impact rising interest rates may have on the economy. Several Federal Reserve officials indicated that now was not the time to stop interest-rate increases, but it may be appropriate to slow the pace of those hikes. While stock values slipped last week, Treasury yields declined, with 10-year Treasury yields falling for the third week in a row. Crude oil prices climbed higher for the second straight week on optimism over China’s anticipated increase in demand. The dollar held relatively steady, while gold prices increased $7.00 per ounce.
Market Week: January 17, 2023
The Markets (as of market close January 13, 2023)
Stocks advanced for the second week in a row to kick off 2023. Investors were encouraged by inflation data that showed prices slid lower in December. The interest-rate-sensitive Nasdaq posted gains for six consecutive sessions, its longest streak since 2021, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 enjoyed their biggest weekly gains in nearly two months. China’s economic reopening boosted prospects for increased energy demand, sending crude oil prices higher. The dollar declined last week, which helped gold prices surge to the highest level since April.
Market Week: January 9, 2023
The Markets (as of market close January 6, 2023)
Last Friday’s rally helped drive stocks higher to end the first full week of January. Investors apparently saw a deceleration in November and December average hourly earnings (see jobs report below) as a sign that the aggressive monetary policy followed by the Federal Reserve may actually be slowing inflation. Traders will await this week’s consumer price index to get a better gauge on the direction of inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, stocks closed last week higher, led by the Global Dow. The large caps of the Dow and the S&P 500 boasted solid gains, as did the small caps of the Russell 2000. Ten-year Treasury yields fell on rising bond prices. Crude oil prices declined nearly $7.00 per barrel. The dollar rose marginally, while gold prices advanced.