Economic Update
Market Week: December 27, 2022
The Markets (as of market close December 23, 2022)
Stocks ended a turbulent week generally lower as investors digested the latest inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s possible response. Of the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Dow and the Global Dow managed to eke out gains by the end of last week. Inflation rose by only 0.1% in November, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (see below). Investors are hoping this is the latest sign that inflationary pressures have peaked, which could influence the Fed to scale back its interest-rate hikes. However, news that China is experiencing another surge in COVID cases could prompt more government-imposed lockdowns, which would impact the global economy. Ten-year Treasury yields advanced the most since early April. The dollar edged lower, while gold prices climbed higher. Crude oil prices increased for the second week in a row, nearing $80.00 per barrel.
Market Week: December 19, 2022
The Markets (as of market close December 16, 2022)
Wall Street saw stocks end last week lower as investors worried that the Federal Reserve’s push to slow rising inflation may lead the economy into a recession. Early in the week, investors were buoyed by softer-than-expected inflation data, which preceded the Fed’s expected 50-basis-point interest-rate hike. However, Federal Reserve officials were clear that interest rate increases will continue until it is evident that inflation has been controlled. After beginning last week on a high note, equities endured three straight days of losses. The Nasdaq, the Global Dow, and the S&P 500 each fell more than 2.0%. The Russell 2000 and the Dow also declined. Crude oil prices advanced, but remain subdued on recession fears. Ten-year Treasury yields slid lower by the end of the week. The dollar and gold prices dipped lower.
Market Week: December 12, 2022
The Markets (as of market close December 9, 2022)
Stocks couldn’t maintain momentum from the previous two weeks, ultimately closing last week in the red. The small caps of the Russell 2000 gave back over 5.0%, while the Nasdaq dropped 4.0%. The S&P 500 fell 3.4%, the Dow declined 2.8%, and the Global Dow dipped 1.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields gained 6.0 basis points, and the dollar inched higher. Crude oil prices fell nearly 11.0%, closing at about $71.50 per barrel, which is below their 2021 closing values. Investors reacted poorly to a higher-than-expected producer price index last Friday and may anticipate a similar result when the consumer price index is released early this week.
Market Month: November 2022
The Markets (as of market close November 30, 2022)
A late rally at the end of the month helped push stocks higher in November, marking the second monthly advance in a row. Each of the benchmark indexes posted solid monthly gains, led by the Global Dow, which advanced nearly 11.0%. The large caps of the S&P 500 and the Dow rose more than 5.0%. The Nasdaq climbed 4.4%, while the Russell 2000 added 2.2%.
Market Week: November 28, 2022
The Markets (as of market close November 25, 2022)
Wall Street ended the Thanksgiving week ahead of where it began, as each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains during a week of light trading. The Global Dow led the indexes, followed by the Dow, the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq. Stocks have been rallying since October and the holiday season tends to be strong for equities heading into the final month of the year. Crude oil prices fell for the third straight week, firmly settling below $80.00 per barrel. A cap on Russian oil prices, coupled with China’s surging COVID cases, has kept oil prices muted.
Market Week: November 21, 2022
The Markets (as of market close November 18, 2022)
Stocks fell last week following warnings from several Federal Reserve officials that more policy tightening was to come. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the week lower after enjoying solid gains the previous week. The Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq fell the furthest, followed by the S&P 500, the Global Dow, and the Dow. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ended last week right where they began. Gold prices couldn’t maintain an early-week surge, ultimately closing lower by the close of trading last Friday. The dollar gained about 0.05%. An abundant supply and waning demand sent crude oil prices lower for the second week in a row.
Market Week: November 14, 2022
The Markets (as of market close November 11, 2022)
Stocks rebounded from a sluggish start to close last week higher. Investors continued to rally behind equities on the hope that last week’s soft inflation data will prompt the Federal Reserve to curtail its interest-rate hikes. The S&P 500 rose to its best week since June, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq notched its best week in two years. Bond prices advanced, pulling Treasury yields lower. Crude oil prices slid lower, although they could jump in December when the European ban on Russian oil shipments by sea takes effect on December 5, potentially limiting supply. Gold prices advanced for the second consecutive week. The dollar endured the largest two-day fall in 13 years after plunging last Thursday and Friday.
Market Week: November 7, 2022
The Markets (as of market close November 4, 2022)
Despite a late-week rally, stocks closed lower last week. Investors continued to try to assess the plethora of mixed data and its impact on the economy. Inflation continued to rise, and the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates up another 75.0 basis points, yet the October job figures were above expectations — the result of which has been market volatility. For example, the S&P 500 has recorded five monthly moves of at least 7.0% either upward or downward. With the release of the consumer price index later this week, more volatility is likely. Nevertheless, each of the benchmark indexes listed here slid lower last week, led by the Nasdaq, which dropped nearly 6.0% as tech shares fell nearly 7.0%. Long-term bond prices also fell, pushing yields higher, with 10-year Treasury yields increasing 14.0 basis points. The dollar ended the week relatively flat, while gold prices advanced for the first time in a month. Crude oil prices finished at their highest price in a month, as the prospects of China’s relaxation of COVID restrictions likely will remove the lid on crude oil prices.
Market Month: October 2022
The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2022)
October saw stocks close higher, the first monthly gain since July. Investors were encouraged by hopes that the Federal Reserve will pull back from its aggressive interest-rate hike policy. In addition, solid third-quarter earnings could be a sign that the economy can withstand the battle to lower inflation. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable gains, led by the Dow, which rose nearly 14.0%. The Russell 2000 gained about 11.0%, followed by the Global Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq. After two consecutive quarters of retractions, the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the third quarter. Personal spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of the economy, increased 1.4% in the third quarter. A strong labor market and ample savings have supported consumer spending. The Treasury deficit for fiscal year 2022 was nearly half the total of the previous fiscal year. Industrial production increased, as did new orders for durable goods. However, not all economic indicators were positive. The housing sector continued to lag, impacted by rising mortgage interest rates. Inflation indicators, which had shown a decline in August, reversed course in September. The personal consumption expenditures price index and the consumer price index increased.
Market Week: October 31, 2022
The Markets (as of market close October 28, 2022)
Wall Street continued its weekly rally last week, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting solid gains. Traders focused on positive earnings reports from major megacap technology and communication companies rather than the latest data that showed inflation continuing to rise, opening the door for more interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Solid corporate earnings in the third quarter may be evidence that the economy can withstand the battle against inflation. However, a slowdown in manufacturing and the housing market could be an indication that the rate increases are impacting at least some parts of the economy. Nevertheless, stocks rallied for the second consecutive week, making it look likely that October will be a strong month.