Economic Update
Quarterly Market Review: April – June 2023
The Markets (second quarter through June 30, 2023)
Wall Street proved resilient during the second quarter of the year, despite rising inflation, two interest rate hikes, and concerns about the debt ceiling. The economy remained relatively strong, despite predictions that it may be headed toward a recession. The second quarter saw information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary account for most of the market gains. Energy, utilities, health care, financials, and consumer staples slid lower. The market’s positive performance during the second quarter was buoyed by strength in the labor market, economic data that may be showing inflation is beginning to wane, and a better-than-expected first-quarter gross domestic product.
Market Week: June 26, 2023
The Markets (as of market close June 23, 2023)
Recession fears sent stocks lower during the holiday-shortened week. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed in the red, with the small caps of the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow losing over 2.50%. The downturn ended a three-week rally for the Dow, a five-week winning streak for the S&P 500, and an eight-week surge by the Nasdaq. Concerns about rising interest rates and slowing economic growth weighed on equities. Rising inflation in Europe and Asia prompted more interest rate hikes by many central banks, which also dampened market growth. Ten-year Treasury yields dipped lower, while the dollar eked out a gain. Gold prices declined for the second straight week. Crude oil prices declined on fears of waning demand.
Market Week: June 20, 2023
The Markets (as of market close June 16, 2023)
Stocks advanced for the third straight week, as each of the benchmark indexes listed here climbed higher. Inflationary pressures may finally be subsiding, according to the latest data (see below). In addition, the Federal Reserve held interest rates at their current range following their meeting last week, although there are indications that at least one, and possibly two more rate hikes are in store by the end of the year. With more interest rate hikes forecast, long- and short-term Treasury yields advanced. Despite a dip at the end of the week, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 had their best week since March. Crude oil prices ebbed and flowed throughout much of the week, ultimately rallying to close higher. The dollar and gold prices declined.
Market Week: June 12, 2023
The Markets (as of market close June 9, 2023)
Stocks closed another week higher, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting gains. With last week’s advance, the Nasdaq has risen for seven consecutive weeks, while the S&P 500 hit its highest level since August 2022. The S&P 500 is more than 20% above its October 2022 low, putting it in bull territory. The Russell 2000 led the indexes, despite falling at the end of last week. The Global Dow also gained more than 1.0%. Long-term bond prices held steady, with yields on 10-year Treasuries inching up 5.0 basis points on the week. Crude oil prices fell for the second consecutive week. The dollar dipped lower, while gold prices edged higher.
Market Week: June 5, 2023
The Markets (as of market close June 2, 2023)
Stocks began the week on a downturn, but rallied later to end last week higher. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid weekly gains, led by the Russell 2000, followed by the Nasdaq, the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Global Dow. Investors began the week concerned that the debt ceiling agreement between President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy would not pass the House and Senate. However, both chambers of Congress passed the debt ceiling bill later in the week, removing the risk of government default. In addition, investors may have been encouraged by a strong jobs report (see below), which is somewhat paradoxical as a strong labor market could support more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, Wall Street ended the week on a positive note. The Nasdaq rose for the sixth consecutive week, the longest weekly winning streak since January 2020. Despite a surge last Thursday and Friday, crude oil prices ended the week lower. The yield on 10-year Treasuries slipped lower, while the dollar changed little. Gold prices advanced nearly 1.0%.
Market Month: May 2023
The Markets (as of market close May 31, 2023)
The markets in May were marked by ongoing volatility. Inflation, questions over the direction of monetary policy, and slower liquidity growth impacted equities. The ongoing debt ceiling negotiations cast a cloud over financial markets for much of May. Investors worried about the ramifications of inaction as the June 5 deadline loomed. Even after the president and House speaker reached an agreement toward the end of May, concerns persisted over whether Congress would pass the bill to lift the $31.4 trillion U.S. debt ceiling.
Market Week: May 30, 2023
The Markets (as of market close May 26, 2023)
Wall Street ended last week with mixed returns. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were pushed higher by tech shares and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. The Global Dow, the Dow, and the Russell 2000 closed in the red. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 11.0 basis points, as they drew closer to their 2022 year-end values. For much of last week, investors kept a close watch on negotiations involving the U.S. debt ceiling. By last Friday, it appeared progress was being made on a deal to raise the debt limit and cap federal spending for two years. Crude oil prices advanced for the second straight week. The dollar advanced against a basket of currencies, while gold prices declined for the third consecutive week.
Market Week: May 22, 2023
The Markets (as of market close May 19, 2023)
Most of last week, investors seemed to react to negotiations concerning the debt ceiling. Despite a lackluster ending to the week, stocks closed generally higher. Tech shares climbed nearly 4.0%, while consumer discretionary stocks also posted gains. Overall, each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended last week higher, led by the Nasdaq, followed by the Russell 2000, the S&P 500, the Global Dow, and the Dow. In fact, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 had their best week since March. Ten-year Treasury yields added 24 basis points. The dollar advanced, while gold prices slid. Crude oil prices gained about $1.70.
Market Week: May 15, 2023
The Markets (as of market close May 12, 2023)
Stocks trended lower last week, with only the Nasdaq able to eke out a gain. Investors remained pensive as they await negotiations on the debt ceiling. With roughly 92% of the S&P 500 companies having reported first-quarter earnings thus far, results appear headed down 2.5% from last year. This follows a 4.6% drop in fourth-quarter earnings. Despite the downturn, FactSet reported that 78% of the companies have reported earnings that beat expectations, which is the most since the third quarter of 2021. So far in 2023, only the Russell 2000 has yet to reach its 2022 closing value. The remaining benchmark indexes listed here remain ahead of where they began this year, despite lackluster results through the first two weeks of May. Crude oil prices declined for the fourth consecutive week on concerns of weakening demand. Gold prices slipped lower but remained over $2,000.00 per ounce.
Market Week: May 8, 2023
The Markets (as of market close May 5, 2023)
Stocks closed last week generally lower, with only the Nasdaq eking out a minimal gain. A rally last Friday wasn’t enough to recoup losses experienced during the week. Investors had quite a bit to digest over the past week. The Federal Reserve hiked the federal funds rate 25 basis points and gave no clear indication as to whether and when more rate increases may be coming. Regional banks continued to struggle, however bank stocks rallied late in the week to help ease investor concerns. The April jobs report was solid, but also showed the pace of hiring was slowing. Crude oil prices continued to tumble on concerns of a slowing U.S. economy and tepid Chinese demand. Gold prices rebounded from the prior week, once again moving above the $2,000.00 per ounce mark.