Economic Update
Market Week: September 11, 2023
The Markets (as of market close September 8, 2023)
Wall Street saw stocks slide lower last week, with each of the benchmark indexes closing in the red. Trading was choppy throughout the holiday-shortened week as traders anticipated this week’s inflation data. The Russell 2000 fell the furthest, followed by the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, the Global Dow, and the Dow. Crude oil prices advanced for the second straight week and are on track for a second consecutive monthly gain as some OPEC+ countries including Russia extended supply cuts. As investors await this week’s Consumer Price Index, rising oil prices could push overall prices higher than expected. Last week, 10-year Treasury yields rose as did the dollar, while gold prices declined.
Market Week: September 5, 2023
The Markets (as of market close September 1, 2023)
The markets enjoyed their best week since June, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting solid gains. The latest jobs report (see below) showed the labor market has slowed over the past few months, while unemployment has risen, giving investors reason to think the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate hikes later this month. The majority of the market sectors moved higher, with information technology (5.3%) and energy (4.9%), leading the way. Crude oil prices ended a two-week losing streak after rising more than 7.0% last week and over 30.0% over the past two months as the Saudi-led OPEC+ extended production cuts. The dollar and gold prices closed higher.
Market Month: August 2023
The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2023)
August proved to be a tough month for stocks, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here ending the month notably lower. Investors tried to decipher mixed economic data throughout the month, attempting to gauge the course of the economy, while trying to determine what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates moving forward.
Market Week: August 28, 2023
The Markets (as of market close August 25, 2023)
Last week saw Wall Street generally close with a mixed bag of results. The Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the Global Dow ended the week higher, while the Dow and the Russell 2000 lost value. Investors tried to digest Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments from the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium last Friday. Powell indicated that, despite inflation coming down, prices remain too high. The central bank is prepared to hike interest rates further until inflation steadies at the Fed’s 2.0% target. Powell’s suggestion of more interest rate increases sent bond yields higher, with two-year Treasury yields rising to 5.07%. Among the market sectors, consumer discretionary and information technology gained 2.0%. Crude oil prices declined for the second straight week, while the dollar rose for the fourth consecutive week.
Market Week: August 21, 2023
The Markets (as of market close August 18, 2023)
After another week of strong economic data, investors seemed to accept that the Fed may not be done lifting interest rates after all — and that Wall Street might have started celebrating the end of the rate-hike cycle too soon. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here dropped more than 2% by the end of the week, as did crude oil prices. Gold prices also fell, while the dollar advanced. Yields on 10-year Treasuries continued their upward march, reaching 15-year highs.
Market Week: August 14, 2023
The Markets (as of market close August 11, 2023)
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell for the second straight week, while the DOW outperformed the benchmark indexes listed here. Stocks have been relatively soft so far in August, which is not out of the ordinary. A slightly hotter-than-expected uptick in producer prices (see below) likely pushed Treasury yields higher, while cooling mega-cap growth shares, which are generally sensitive to interest rate movements. Several market sectors ended the week lower with information technology (-4.3%) and consumer discretionary (-2.3%) falling the furthest, while energy (+3.6%) and health care (+2.1%) advanced the most. Corporate earnings season for the second quarter is winding down. With Roughly 85% of the S&P 500 companies reporting results, nearly 81% have beaten profit estimates. The dollar strengthened, while gold prices notched the worst weekly performance in over a month.
Market Week: August 7, 2023
The Markets (as of market close August 4, 2023)
Stocks endured a losing week for the first time since early July. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here lost value, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq suffering the steepest weekly declines since March. Investors dealt with the downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating and evidence that job growth may be slowing (see below). Corporate earnings have generally matched or beaten expectations, but a couple of bellwether tech and communications companies proffered disappointing earnings. Bond prices fell, pushing yields higher. The dollar rose higher, while gold prices slid lower. Crude oil prices increased for the sixth straight week, the longest streak in more than a year.
Market Month: July 2023
The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2023)
Stocks closed higher in July, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting notable gains. Both the stock market in particular, and the economy in general, have proven to be resilient in 2023, despite rising interest rates.
The Federal Reserve, in its endeavor to bring inflation down to the government’s 2.0% target, hiked interest rates another 25.0 basis points in July, to the highest level in 22 years (see below). However, there are clear signs that inflation is finally receding. The Consumer Price Index and the personal consumption expenditures price index saw their respective 12-month rates fall to the lowest levels in nearly two years. Import and export prices dipped lower in July, as did producer prices.
Market Week: July 31, 2023
The Markets (as of market close July 28, 2023)
Stocks enjoyed a favorable week of returns, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting solid gains. The Dow and the S&P 500 notched their third straight week of gains. Inflation continued to cool in June, with the smallest 12-month rate increase since March 2021 (see below). So far, corporate earnings for the second quarter have been generally favorable, with some large tech companies beating expectations. Long-term bond prices fell, sending yields higher. Crude oil prices advanced, with global oil prices gaining more than 16.0% since late June. Rising oil prices have spurred an increase in gasoline prices. The dollar slipped lower last week, while gold prices climbed higher.
Market Week: July 24, 2023
The Markets (as of market close July 21, 2023)
Last week saw stocks close generally higher, with only the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipping lower. The Dow extended its winning streak to 10 straight sessions, its longest run since August 2017. Investors, probably anticipating another 25.0 basis-point hike from the Federal Reserve this week, moved from information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary shares to more defensive sectors such as health care, utilities, and consumer staples. Long-term bond prices remained relatively stable for the week, with yields on 10-year Treasuries inching up 2.0 basis points. The dollar rebounded last week after sliding over 2.0% the prior week. The labor market remained strong, with jobless claims (see below) coming in lower than expected, which reduces the risk of recession and strengthens the dollar. Crude oil prices advanced again last week, keeping July’s streak of weekly increases intact.