Economic Update
Market Week: December 25, 2023
The Markets (as of market close December 22, 2023)
Stocks notched their eighth straight week of gains heading into the holiday-shortened week. While trading was generally light, investors remained bullish toward stocks as traders clung to the hope that the economy has survived the restrictive inflation-reducing policy of the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 enjoyed its longest weekly winning streak since late 2017, while the Nasdaq and the Dow marked the streaks since early 2019. With one week to go in 2023, the S&P 500 is within 1.0% of reaching its all-time high, achieved in January 2022. The Russell 2000, which was below its 2022 closing value in August, now is more than 15.0% above that level. Investors were also encouraged by economic data released last week, which showed inflation continuing to trend lower, while new orders for durable goods advanced, a good sign for corporations. Crude oil prices ticked higher but remained below $75.00 per barrel. Yields on 10-year Treasuries moved marginally lower, while the dollar weakened on declining interest rates.
Market Week: December 18, 2023
The Markets (as of market close December 15, 2023)
Last week saw stocks rally after the Federal Reserve policy statement released last Wednesday suggested no more interest rate hikes, while predicting rate cuts in 2024 (see below). Despite losing momentum at the end of the week, stocks enjoyed their seventh consecutive week of gains, with the S&P 500 marking its longest winning streak since 2017 and the Dow’s longest since 2018. Each of the market sectors ended the week higher, led by real estate, consumer discretionary, materials, and financials. Bond yields continued to be volatile, dropping 32.0 basis points as investors tried to determine the direction interest rates will take. Crude oil prices ended a stretch of six weeks of losses. The dollar registered its largest weekly drop in a month against a basket of currencies.
Market Week: December 11, 2023
The Markets (as of market close December 8, 2023)
The first week of December saw stocks close higher. Megacaps fueled much of the increase. A better-than-expected jobs report (see below) encouraged investor sentiment about a soft landing for the economy, while cooling expectations of an early cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended last week higher, with the exception of the Global Dow. Several market sectors advanced, led by consumer discretionary, real estate, industrials, communication services, and information technology. Energy, consumer staples, and materials lagged. Ten-year Treasury yields rode a wave of ebbs and flows during the week, ultimately closing about where they began. A late-week rally wasn’t enough to keep crude oil prices from falling for the sixth straight week. The dollar edged higher, while gold prices declined.
Market Week: December 4, 2023
The Markets (as of market close December 1, 2023)
The markets continued to flourish last week. Investors were not deterred by a warning from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that interest rate hikes may not be over, and it is premature to speculate when rate decreases will begin. The S&P 500 and the Dow reached new 2023 highs, while the Nasdaq posted solid returns as all three indexes extended a run of five straight weekly gains. Despite additional output cuts by OPEC+, crude oil prices continued to lag as demand remained soft. Ten-year Treasury yields closed down nearly 80.0 basis points from a peak in October. Yields fell over 50.0 basis points in November, marking the largest monthly decline since August 2019. The dollar weakened, while gold prices finished the week at a record high.
Market Month: November 2023
The Markets (as of market close November 30, 2023)
Stocks rose notably in November following three straight months of declines. The Nasdaq led the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, the Dow, and the Global Dow. Overall, indexes enjoyed their best month since late 2022 and the best November in three years. Signs of waning inflationary pressure powered investor optimism that the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates.
Market Week: November 27, 2023
The Markets (as of market close November 24, 2023)
Market activity was subdued during Thanksgiving week, which saw stocks close higher. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here gained ground, led by the large caps of the Dow and the S&P 500. Each of the 11 market sectors ended the week higher, with health care, energy, and communication services leading the way. Treasury yields rose marginally higher, while crude oil prices slipped for the fifth straight week. The dollar declined, while gold prices advanced for the second consecutive week.
Market Week: November 20, 2023
The Markets (as of market close November 17, 2023)
The market enjoyed a favorable week as each of the benchmark indexes listed here gained ground. Inflation data showed consumer prices moderated in October, while the Federal government avoided a shutdown. Over the last three weeks, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow had their best runs since June 2020, April 2020, and November 2022, respectively. Crude oil prices lost ground for the fourth straight week despite a rally last Friday. The dollar fell to a two-month low. Gold prices ended the week with solid gains.
Market Week: November 13, 2023
The Markets (as of market close November 10, 2023)
Stocks closed generally higher last week on continued hopes that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates despite more hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Tech and growth stocks carried the market for much of the week as investors looked ahead to this week’s inflation reports. Ten-year Treasury yields eased somewhat from recent 16-year highs. Crude oil prices fell for the third straight week. The dollar edged higher, while gold prices couldn’t maintain momentum, declining nearly 3.0% last week.
Market Week: November 6, 2023
The Markets (as of market close November 3, 2023)
Wall Street ended a two-week bear run as stocks enjoyed their best week of the year. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains, while bond yields declined, dragged lower by escalating bond prices. Investors may have seen slowing job growth (see below) as more reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain, if not lower, interest rates in the near future. The Fed kept interest rates at their current levels following last week’s meeting (see below). Third-quarter corporate earnings have been mixed, with about 49% of the companies of the S&P 500 reporting earnings that are 7.7% above estimates, which is below the five-year average of 8.5% but above the 10-year average of 6.6%. Crude oil prices fell for the second straight week as supply concerns driven by tensions in the Middle East waned. The dollar declined to a six-week low, while gold prices advanced.
Market Month: October 2023
The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2023)
Stocks declined for the third straight month in October, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here ending the month notably lower. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 endured their worst October since 2018. The S&P 500, down for three straight months, had its worst three-month performance since the period ended June 2022. The Nasdaq also had its worst October since 2018, down about 11.0% over the past three months, marking its poorest three-month performance since the August-October period in 2022. This was not a good month for the Dow, which suffered its worst October since 2020.