Economic Update

Market Week: January 22, 2024

The Markets (as of market close January 19, 2024)

Wall Street closed the holiday-shortened week generally higher, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting gains, except for the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow. The surge in stocks was driven primarily by information technology and communication services, with chip makers leading the charge. Other than financials, which ticked up marginally higher, the remaining market sectors ended the week in the red. Following December’s surge, investors became pensive about stocks to begin the new year after expectations of an impending interest rate cut waned. However, favorable economic news helped bolster confidence in equities, at least for the time being. Long-term bond prices faded, pushing yields higher, as good economic news, particularly in the labor sector, supported the Federal Reserve’s inclination to keep rates higher for longer.

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Market Week: January 15, 2024

The Markets (as of market close January 5th, 2023)

Wall Street saw stocks close higher last week, despite dampening hopes of an interest rate reduction. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here rebounded from a slow start to the year by adding value last week. Some major financial companies posted lower-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings. Information technology and communication services led the sectors, while energy and utilities underperformed. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped lower. Crude oil prices retreated marginally. The dollar was flat, while goldprices ticked higher.

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Market Week: January 8, 2024

The Markets (as of market close January 5th, 2023)

After pulling off a surprisingly strong rally in the fourth quarter of 2023, the stock market took a tumble
during the first week of the new year. All five of the indexes listed here ended lower, with the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq seeing the largest losses. Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary were the two worst-performing sectors, while health care, utilities, and energy posted decent gains. A solid jobs report pushed ten-year Treasury yields above 4.0% on Friday. Oil prices were volatile but ended the week 3.4% higher, primarily due to rising tensions in the Red Sea.

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Market Week: January 1, 2024

The Markets (as of market close December 29, 2023)

The markets closed out last week and the year with gains, despite losing steam at the end of the week. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended last week higher, with the exception of the Russell 2000, which dipped 0.3%. The Dow and the S&P 500 logged their ninth straight week of gains, with the S&P 500 enjoying its longest weekly winning streak since 2004. Health care and utilities led the market sectors, along with industrials, financials, and real estate. Energy and communication services ended the week in the red. Bond values advanced, pulling yields lower. Crude oil prices closed the week and the year lower. The dollar edged down, while gold prices eked out a gain.

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Annual Market Review 2023

The year 2023 was dominated by inflation and the Federal Reserve’s restrictive policy in response to it. The year began with inflation at about 6.5%, with the Fed raising interest rates despite fears of rising unemployment and an economic recession. But while the focus remained on inflation, several other events occurred during the year, including the a political battle over the debt ceiling and a potential government shutdown; the collapse of several banks; labor strikes; and unrest in the Middle East.

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Market Week: December 25, 2023

The Markets (as of market close December 22, 2023)

Stocks notched their eighth straight week of gains heading into the holiday-shortened week. While trading was generally light, investors remained bullish toward stocks as traders clung to the hope that the economy has survived the restrictive inflation-reducing policy of the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 enjoyed its longest weekly winning streak since late 2017, while the Nasdaq and the Dow marked the streaks since early 2019. With one week to go in 2023, the S&P 500 is within 1.0% of reaching its all-time high, achieved in January 2022. The Russell 2000, which was below its 2022 closing value in August, now is more than 15.0% above that level. Investors were also encouraged by economic data released last week, which showed inflation continuing to trend lower, while new orders for durable goods advanced, a good sign for corporations. Crude oil prices ticked higher but remained below $75.00 per barrel. Yields on 10-year Treasuries moved marginally lower, while the dollar weakened on declining interest rates.

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Market Week: December 18, 2023

The Markets (as of market close December 15, 2023)

Last week saw stocks rally after the Federal Reserve policy statement released last Wednesday suggested no more interest rate hikes, while predicting rate cuts in 2024 (see below). Despite losing momentum at the end of the week, stocks enjoyed their seventh consecutive week of gains, with the S&P 500 marking its longest winning streak since 2017 and the Dow’s longest since 2018. Each of the market sectors ended the week higher, led by real estate, consumer discretionary, materials, and financials. Bond yields continued to be volatile, dropping 32.0 basis points as investors tried to determine the direction interest rates will take. Crude oil prices ended a stretch of six weeks of losses. The dollar registered its largest weekly drop in a month against a basket of currencies.

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Market Week: December 11, 2023

The Markets (as of market close December 8, 2023)

The first week of December saw stocks close higher. Megacaps fueled much of the increase. A better-than-expected jobs report (see below) encouraged investor sentiment about a soft landing for the economy, while cooling expectations of an early cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended last week higher, with the exception of the Global Dow. Several market sectors advanced, led by consumer discretionary, real estate, industrials, communication services, and information technology. Energy, consumer staples, and materials lagged. Ten-year Treasury yields rode a wave of ebbs and flows during the week, ultimately closing about where they began. A late-week rally wasn’t enough to keep crude oil prices from falling for the sixth straight week. The dollar edged higher, while gold prices declined.

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Market Week: December 4, 2023

The Markets (as of market close December 1, 2023)

The markets continued to flourish last week. Investors were not deterred by a warning from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that interest rate hikes may not be over, and it is premature to speculate when rate decreases will begin. The S&P 500 and the Dow reached new 2023 highs, while the Nasdaq posted solid returns as all three indexes extended a run of five straight weekly gains. Despite additional output cuts by OPEC+, crude oil prices continued to lag as demand remained soft. Ten-year Treasury yields closed down nearly 80.0 basis points from a peak in October. Yields fell over 50.0 basis points in November, marking the largest monthly decline since August 2019. The dollar weakened, while gold prices finished the week at a record high.

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Market Month: November 2023

The Markets (as of market close November 30, 2023)

Stocks rose notably in November following three straight months of declines. The Nasdaq led the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, the Dow, and the Global Dow. Overall, indexes enjoyed their best month since late 2022 and the best November in three years. Signs of waning inflationary pressure powered investor optimism that the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates.

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